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World Stocks Up After Greece Asks For Bailout

World stock markets rose Monday as fears of a Greek debt default eased following last week’s request by the country to tap a rescue package from its 15 partners in the eurozone and the International Monetary Fund.

Rate decisions in the US, Japan and New Zealand, and the first GDP release from the US for 2010 are the highlights of this week, which begins slowly and then explodes. Will the dollar index break to a one year high?

Greek hopes turned into worries once again, as more credit downgrades for Greece were released and the talks of a possible default became louder. This story continues to accompany us, as well as the indicators.
This market review was brought to your by our partner: ForexCrunch.com

1. American CB Consumer Confidence: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. This broad survey of 5,000 households had a big dip in February but recovered quickly in March and reached 52.5 points. It’s now expected to take one step higher and rise to 54.2 points. EUR/USD is quite sensitive to this release.

2. Ben Bernanke talks: Starts speaking before the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. In this official public appearance, Bernanke will definitely move the markets. He will testify on the challenge of achieving fiscal sustainability and will comment about the economy.

3. Australian CPI: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. Australia published its consumer prices only once every quarter, making this event an important release – an important indicator towards the next rate decision. After rising by 0.5% in Q4 of 2009, an acceleration is expected this time – 0.9%. A rise above 1% might push the Stevens to another rate hike. He seems reluctant to make another move soon.

4. American rate decision: Published on Wednesday at 18:15 GMT. Ben Bernanke isn’t expected to make any surprises with the Federal Funds Rate – it’s expected to remain unchanged at a maximum level of 0.25%. Maybe the discount rate will be mentioned. As usual, the FOMC Statement will be closely watched – every change in the wording might have hints, especially the clause about holding interest rates at a low level for an extended period of time.

5. New Zealand rate decision: Published on Wednesday at 21:00 GMT. New Zealand didn’t follow Australia with a move on the rates, and isn’t expected to move them now as well. The Official Cash Rate is expected to stay at 2.5%. Given the unconvincing rise in prices and weak retail sales, this won’t happen soon. The RBNZ Rate Statement that accompanies the rate decision will have a strong impact on the currency, especially if the economic forecast is updated.

6. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. After rising to alarming levels, last week’s numbers were back to normal, at 456K. This time, a drop down to 440K is predicted. A break under 430K is necessary for seeing serious growth in the job market. Note that this is the best indicator for the Non-Farm Payrolls. Up to now, jobless claims indicate that no fireworks will be seen at the next NFP.

7. Japanese rate decision: Published on Friday morning. Japan’s Overnight Call Rate won’t move from 0.1%, not in the near future. The focus will be on the easing steps that the BOJ will make, and on the updated economic forecasts. Japan declared a war on deflation and could take more steps to stimulate the economy and move prices. Note that the Tokyo Core CPI, the best inflation indicator, is published just before the rate decision and will probably show an annual drop of 2% in prices, worse than previous months.

8. Swiss KOF Economic Barometer: Published on Friday at 9:30 GMT. This important Swiss indicator, based on 12 basic ones, is a good reflection of the Swiss economy, and its moves go hand in hand with the Swissy’s strength. After rising to 1.93 points, a rise to 1.99 is predicted this time, the highest since December 2007.

9. European Unemployment Rate: Published on Friday at 9:00 GMT. The European unemployment rate and flash CPI are published together. Unemployment is flirting around 10% for a few months. This is a big burden on Europe, and prevents Trichet from moving the rates, despite improvements various surveys.

10. European Flash CPI: On the other hand, inflation is slowly picking up. The CPI Flash Estimate is expected to show an annual rise of 1.4% in prices, exactly like last month and the highest level since the end of 2008. German PPI unexpectedly leaped last week. A rise above 1.5% will be problematic for Trichet – fighting inflation with higher rates will endanger the fragile recovery.

11. Canadian GDP: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Canada’s monthly GDP is expected to rise by 0.5% in February, slightly lower than the 0.6% in January, but still in the same good rate as in Q4. Another nice month of growth will support the Canadian dollar in its battle on parity, which is still going on. GDP helped the loonie last month, and after the weak CPI and retail sales, it’ll sure need another boost.

12. American Advance GDP: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. After a very strong fourth quarter, that wasn’t accompanied with the same recovery in jobs, economists expect Q1 to show slower growth – an annual rate of 3.4%. Note that these expectations aren’t low, and that exceeding them will be a big boost for the dollar.

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Will the EUR/USD go up or down?

The EUR/USD pair gapped enormously today on the news of the European Union bailout of Greece announced over the weekend. This powerful move broke through a very significant 4 month descending line of resistance and can only indicate further gains to the EUR/USD. Expect strong volume for this currency pair with important economic events from the U.S. throughout the week. Don’t miss out on this opportunity to make quick gains on the EUR/USD using Binary Options trading.

iPad Launched this Saturday how is it going to impact on the stock’s price?

Stock Highlights: Apple iPad Launch

There has been a lot of talk about the iPad since the announcement of its launch.  Still, many debate what it really is, what it can do, what are the applications  that are best fit for the iPad.  But the main question that remains is: how is it going to impact on the stock’s price?

Apple’s [Nasdaq:AAPL] new wonder device, the iPad, got off to a strong start even before this weekend’s official launch date. Eager customers lined up at Apple stores Saturday to get their hands on the new and much-hyped tablet-style PC. This was due in part, no doubt, to the fact that Apple sold out of preorders of the iPad. With a starting price of $499 to $699, estimates for iPad sales for all of 2010 range from 3 million to 6 million units. Estimates for just this weekend alone range from 300,000 to 500,000 units out the door and into the hand of early adopters and Apple fanatics.
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Forex Market Review:

The upcoming week begins with important American figures on Easter day, and continues with a very busy week all over the world – four rate decisions, two employment releases and one Ben Bernanke are on the menu this week. Let’s see what’s awaiting us:

This market review was brought to your by our partner: ForexCrunch.com

The echoes of the Non-Farm Payrolls will be heard at the beginning of the week, when the calendar is light, and also afterwards. The rise in jobs, that finally arrived, will raise the pressure for a rate hike. OK, let’s start reviewing the 11 major events:

1. American ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Published on Monday at 14:00 GMT. After the same figure for the manufacturing sector posted a huge surprise last week, expectations are high for this figure as well – a rise from 53 to 54.3 points is predicted – the highest in two and a half years.

2. American Pending Home Sales: Published on Monday at 14:00 GMT. After a huge disappointing drop of 7.6% last month, this important housing indicator is predicted to drop by another 0.9%. Together with the PMI, both figures will rock the markets on Easter Day, as most traders are on holiday, and only these releases are due.

3. Australian rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 4:30 GMT. There contradicting expectations for this decision. On one hand, Glenn Stevens (RBA governor) signaled another rise in rates to 4.25%, but the recent figures from Australia indicated a pause, after they reached 4%. The uncertainty will make the impact stronger than usual.

4. American FOMC Meeting Minutes: Published on Tuesday at 18:00 GMT. Despite the rise in the discount rate and one member, Thomas Hoeing, that wants the bank to be more hawkish, the FOMC statement hasn’t really changed recently. Will the meeting minutes reveal something new about a future rate hike?

5. Japanese rate decision: Published on Wednesday morning. The BOJ isn’t expected to move the interest rates, still at 0.1%. The focus will be on the tone of the accompanying statement and especially on extra easing steps. Japanese policymakers are happy with the recent decline of the yen, but the economy is still struggling, as seen in the Tankan index. This will shake USD/JPY and the yen crosses.

6. Australian employment data: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. After 4 superb months, the recent employment figures in Australia were only OK. More positive yet stable data is due this time – employment change is predicted to rise by 20K, and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.3%.

7. British rate decision: Published on Thursday at 11:00 GMT. The Official Bank Rate is expected to stay at the historic low of 0.5%, and the Quantitative Easing program will probably not receive extra cash, after exhausting the 200 billion pounds allocated to it. The focus will be on the MPC rate statement, and especially comments about the government deficit and the economy. Will Mervyn King hurt the Pound again?

8. European rate decision: Published on Thursday at 11:45 GMT. Jean-Claude Trichet will make his first rate decision after the Greek accord (“safety net”), that helped the Euro recover. The rate has no reasons to rise above 1%, so also here, comments about the economy at the press conference (45 minutes after the release) will rock the Euro.

9. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. Yet another drop in the weekly jobless claims is due. After reaching 439K, they’re predicted to drop to 432K, supporting more job gains in the next NFP. Recent releases were better than expected. Will there be another positive surprise?

10. Ben Bernanke talks: Starts speaking on Friday at 00:30 GMT. The chairman of the Federal Reserve always moves the markets, even if he doesn’t say anything meaningful. He’ll speak about economic policy at a dinner in Washington, and will respond to questions from the audience. The dollar could move sharply in the middle of the Asian session.

11. Canadian employment data: Published on Friday at 11:00 GMT.  After the recent drop to 8.2%, Canada’s unemployment rate will probably remain unchanged. The accompanying figure, employment change, will probably show another nice gain in jobs – 25.3K. This can push the loonie higher.

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Greece Debt crisis shaking again European economy – March 1-5 2010

The first week of the month is always busy in forex trading. Apart from Non-Farm Payrolls, we have 3 GDP releases and 4 rate decisions from all over the world, and many other major events. Let’s see what’s awaiting us on the crowded calendar.The first week of the month is always busy in forex trading. Apart from Non-Farm Payrolls, we have 3 GDP releases and 4 rate decisions from all over the world, and many other major events. Let’s see what’s awaiting us on the crowded calendar.

1. European Unemployment Rate: Published on Monday at 10:00 GMT. One of biggest burdens on Europe is unemployment rate, standing at 10%, double digits, for two months. In Spain, the number reaches 20%. A drop in this figure is essential for moving the interest rate, but it will probably take the other direction and rise to 10.1%.

2. Canadian GDP: Published on Monday at 13:30 GMT. Canada’s unique monthly GDP has posted three positive months, with the last print being better than expected 0.4%. The upcoming release is expected to show another 0.4% rise and completes the data for Q4 of 2009 and should provide another boost for the Canadian dollar.

3. American ISM Manufacturing PMI: Published on Monday at 15:00 GMT. This important purchasing managers’ index has been on the rise and jumped up to 58.4 points last month, significantly better than expected. It’s now predicted to ease to 57.9 points.

4. Australian rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 03:30 GMT. After last month’s disappointing decision not to raise the rates, there have been different hints about the upcoming decision, most of them leading to a fourth rate hike, to 4%. This should help the Australian dollar, that was hurt by risk aversion trading.

5. Swiss GDP: Published on Tuesday at 06:45 GMT. Switzerland was relived of 3 quarters of contraction in Q3 of 2009, when the economy grew by 0.3%. This stable recovery is expected to continue and push the Swissy upwards, despite the central bank’s effort to bring it down.

6. Canadian rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. The BOC is expected to leave the Overnight Rate unchanged at 0.25%, and again, the focus will be on the rate statement. The BOC was very clear about the timing – June 2010. Some expected a declaration about an earlier move, but this didn’t happen in previous decisions. Will it happen this time?.

7. American Beige Book: Published on Tuesday at 19:00 GMT. Two weeks before the FOMC meeting which decides on rates, this overview of the economy is released to the public. This could provide a hint about the next decision, or the next moves by the Fed, such as the recent surprising mini rate hike.

8. Australian GDP: Published on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT. The Australian economy enjoyed an improving job market throughout the fourth quarter of 2009, and this should be reflected in the GDP as well, showing the strength of the Australian economy. Q3 was disappointing, with a small growth rate of 0.2%. A strong growth rate of 0.9% is now expected.

9. American ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Published on Wednesday at 13:15 GMT. This release always shakes the markets, as it’s sometimes considered to be a strong indicator for the Non-Farm Payrolls. Last month it showed a loss of only 22K jobs, better than expected – but the Non-Farm Payrolls were worse than expected. So this figure should be handled with care. It’s expected to show a small drop of 9K.

10. American ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Published on Wednesday at 15:00 GMT. In the non-manufacturing sectors, the situation isn’t as good as in manufacturing. ISM showed a score of only 50.5 points, hardly above the critical 50 point mark that indicates economic expansion. This figure fell short of expectations in the past four months. A small rise to 51 is expected.

11. British rate decision: Published on Thursday at 12:00 GMT. Mervyn King hurts the Pound every week. This time, his chance will come at the decision about the Official Bank Rate which will probably stay at 0.5%. Also the Quantitative Easing program (Asset Purchase Facility) isn’t predicted to move from the 200 billion pound already allocated to it, but there might be hints about its renewal.

12. European rate decision: Published on Thursday at 12:45 GMT. Just 45 minutes after the British decision, Jean-Claude Trichet’s ECB will announce the European Minimum Bid Rate. Also here, no changes are expected, but the complementary ECB Press Conference will supply lots of action. The Greek crisis will still be in the limelight.

13. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 13:30 GMT. Providing the last hint about the Non-Farm Payrolls, this weekly release is expected to show some improvement after last week’s disappointing figure – a rise to 496K, a number not seen in a long time. It’s expected to drop back to 474K.

14. American Pending Home Sales: Published on Thursday at 15:00 GMT. This figure returned to stability last month, rising by 1%, but this time it’s predicted to fall again as the housing sector continues to suffer, as we see in the new and existing home sales numbers. A rise of 1.6% is expected.

15. Non-Farm Payrolls: Published on Friday at 13:30 GMT. After two more months of negative numbers, the king of forex, the predictions now turned negative. Last month’s releases were confusing, as 20K jobs were lost, but the unemployment rate dropped significantly from 10% to 9.7%. Will it be confusing again? Or will we see finally see good numbers? This event will impact forex trading before and after the event, for quite some time. Current expectations are for another loss of jobs: 35,000. Also the unemployment rate is expected to be bad, edging up to 9.8%.

This Market Weekly Outlook was brought to you by our partner ForexCrunch.com

U.S. Dollar Slips ahead of Bernanke Testimony- February 22-26

After another wild week and a very surprising rate hike, the last week of February also has its share of big events. Bernanke will continue to dominate the scene with two testimonies and revised GDP in the UK and the US will supply an exciting end to the week. And there are more market moving events. Here’s the weekly outlook.
Ben Bernanke stole the show with a surprising hike of the discount bank rate. This came after the close of the American stock markets but forex trading continues all the time – the dollar leaped. Some currencies took a bigger hit than others. This event will continue to dominate trading on Monday when there aren’t any major releases.

1.German Ifo Business Climate: Published on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT. This wide survey of 7,000 businesses has a strong impact on the Euro. Contrary to the ZEW report that is recently weak, this indicator has been rising steadily in the past year, edging up each time. From last month’s 95.8 score, it’s predicted to tick up to 96.3.

2.American CB Consumer Confidence: Published on Tuesday at 15:00 GMT. Consumer confidence impacts sales and the whole economy. In the past three months, this indicator rose from the low level it fell to, and also revisions to previous releases have been to the upside. This time, it’s predicted to drop from 55.9 to 55 points. This has a wide impact.

3.New Zealand Inflation Expectations: Published on Wednesday at 02:00 GMT. New Zealand has a high interest rate, but expectations for a rate hike like its neighbor Australia haven’t been met. A rate hike depends a lot on prices. This quarterly release will show the direction of inflation and a possible rate hike. Last quarter, expectations rose from 2.3% to 2.6%. Now they are predicted to edge up some more.

4.Ben Bernanke testifies: Happens during Wednesday at 15:00 GMT and Thursday at 14:00 GMT. After Bernanke’s shocking mini-rate hike that was made off the main hours, he’ll make his semi-annual report in broad daylight in front of two committees in Washington DC. Although he might use confusing language, his words will shake the markets.

5.American New Home Sales: Published on Wednesday at 15:00 GMT and overshadowed by Bernanke. New Home Sales took a big dive two months ago and showed everybody that the housing sector depends on government aid. It hasn’t returned to previous levels. From 342K, sales are predicted to edge up to 350K this time.

6.American Durable Goods Orders: Published on Thursday at 13:30 GMT. Orders have been revised to the upside in the past month, from 0.3% to 1%. Also Core orders have been revised to 1.4%. The positive trend is expected to continue, with a rise a rise of 1.6% in orders and 1.2% in core orders. This figure doesn’t touch the consumers, but has a long term impact on the economy.

7.American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 13:30 GMT and overshadowed by goods orders. The American job market is still fragile, and the number of claims refuses to leave the area it is in in the past months. Last week’s 473K is predicted to be followed by 466K this time. A number under 430K or above 480K will shake the markets.

8.British Revised GDP: Published on Friday at 9:30 GMT. Did Britain really return to growth? That’s a big question. The initial release for Q4 finally showed growth – but only 0.1%. Expectations are optimistic and a revision to 0.2% is expected. According to the unofficial NIESR GDP estimate, the economy did grow by only 0.1%. A drop to 0% growth or another quarter of contraction will be devastating for the Pound.

9.Swiss KOF Economic Barometer: Published on Friday at 10:30 GMT. This indicator, locally called Konjunkturbarometer, is an important composite index that usually reflects the situation of the Swiss economy quite well, and has a strong impact. From 1.77 points it’s predicted to rise to 1.77 points this time.

10.American Prelim GDP: Published on Friday at 13:30 GMT. The best is kept almost for last. There were many doubts about the rapid American growth that was reported in the first release. The second release is predicted to show only a small downward revision: from 5.7% to 5.6% in Q4 of 2010. The markets will surely shake with this release. A long term rise in the dollar’s value cannot happen without an improvement in jobs as well.

11.American Existing Home Sales: Published on Friday at 15:00 GMT. This release will be somewhat overshadowed by the GDP publication. Similar to new home sales, this figure, that accounts for more sales, is also volatile and is dependent on government aid. After a drop of 1 million sales last month, stability is expected this time – a tiny rise from 5.45 to 5.51 million.

This Market Weekly Outlook was brought to you by our partner ForexCrunch.com http://www.forexcrunch.com.

Best Regards,
TradeSmarter Team

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Greek Economy Spells Trouble For Eurozone – Market Weekly Outlook – February 15-19

A volatile week full with hope and fear comes to an end with currencies returning to the same spots. The week ahead contains a nice mix of events from all over the world: a rate decision in Japan, employment data from Britain, and lots of American numbers, with important inflation data to close the week. Here’s an outlook for the major events in the week ahead.

The Greek crisis is far from over. While Greece is only a small country at the edge of the Euro-zone, the implications of debt and the ways to deal with it have an impact on many other troubled countries in the region that is on the brink of new recession. This also has a wider impact – debt problems trigger risk aversion trading – dollar buying. OK, let’s start the review:

1.Japanese GDP: Published on Sunday at 23:50 GMT. As of Q2 of 2009, Japan is out of recession. The growth rate has dropped to 0.3% in Q3, after being first reported at 1.2%. Apart from slow economic growth, Japan historically suffers from deflation, a problem that won’t be solved soon. Growth of 1% is expected now.

2.British CPI: Published on Tuesday at 9:30 GMT. This important indicator has risen sharply in recent months. The last print was 2.9%, and the upcoming number is predicted to be 3.6%, above the government’s target. Mervyn King dismissed the inflation threats and signaled that no rate hike is underway. Will he continue this stance once again? Rising inflation isn’t seen elsewhere, and it will be interesting to see the impact on the whole market.

3.ZEW Economic Sentiment: Published on Tuesday at 10:00 GMT. This is a major market mover – especially the release for Germany.
In the past months, it has deteriorated sharply, going hand by hand with the Eurozone’s troubles, and Germany’s stagnant economy. It’s expected to dive again – this time from 47.2 to 41.9 points.

4.American TIC Long-Term Purchases: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. Foreign investment in the US has made a leap last month, rising from 20 to 126 billion dollars. This confidence in the US economy and the dollar probably won’t repeat itself, at least not so strong – 50 billion is predicted this time. A stronger number will boost the dollar.

5.British Employment Data: Published on Wednesday at 9:30 GMT. The number of unemployed people made a turnaround in Britain two months ago and the positive trend continued last month as well. The Claimant Count Change, an early an important indicator is expected to show another “positive loss” of unemployed people this month – 14.3K. The British Unemployment Rate is predicted to remain stable at 7.8%, but economists were wrong with this figure over and over again. Positive numbers will also push towards a rate hike.

6.American Building Permits: Published on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT. The housing sector was one of the main contributors to the downturn in the economy, and is recovering slowly. The annualized number of 0.65 million is predicted to be followed by a drop to 0.62 million. The economy cannot make a significant advance without a healthy housing sector. Also note the housing starts published at the same time.

7.FOMC Meeting Minutes: Published on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT. Although the wording of the statement hasn’t changed, there was one surprise in the recent American rate decision – one member voted to change the wording and start signaling a future rate hike. When the minutes will be revealed, we’ll get to see if other members also began thinking out loud about such an option.

8.Japanese Rate Decision: Published on Thursday, in the early hours. No rate hike is expected in Japan, which suffers from deflation. The Overnight Call Rate is predicted to remain unchanged at 0.1% but the views that that will be expressed about the economy by the BOJ usually move the Yen.

9,American PPI: Published on Thursday at 13:30 GMT. Producer prices aren’t always a market mover, but this time, a rise of 0.8% is predicted, much higher than last month’s 0.2% rise and much higher than previous months. Such a rise might cause Bernanke to rethink the “extended period” wording in the FOMC Statements.

10.American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 13:30 GMT. After a surprise last week – a drop to 440K, the drop in jobs seen in the NFP can be forgotten. A small rise to 445K is predicted this time. Only another drop, preferably below 430K can boost the dollar.

11.American Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Published on Thursday at 15:00 GMT. This important gauge has seen 6 months of improving conditions, but last month was disappointing with a drop to 15.2 points. A steady rise to 17.2 is predicted this time.

12.American CPI: Published on Friday at 13:30 GMT. The major inflation figure closes the week. Contrary to the expectations from the PPI, consumers probably didn’t see a significant rise in prices. CPI is predicted to rise by 0.3% and Core CPI, an indicator that the Federal Reserve watches, is expected to rise by 0.2% – very stable. A jump will make the markets jump, seeing another crazy Friday. For USD/CAD traders, note that the Canadian CPI is published around the same time.

This Market Weekly Outlook was brought to you by our partner ForexCrunch.com.

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Best Regards,
TradeSmarter.com

Disclaimer: Binary options trading might carry potential rewards, but also potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and willing to accept them in order to trade in the financial markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

TradeSmarter.com Market Weekly Outlook – February 8-12

After one of the wildest weeks that we’ve seen in quite a while, the upcoming week seems more quiet, at least at the beginning. The echoes of the Non-Farm Payrolls will be heard during this time. Later on, some major market moving events are due. Here’s the outlook for the second week of February.

Finance ministers of the G7 nations are meeting in the remote Canadian town of Iqaluit and may release important comments that might impact the opening of the markets. The final remarks by US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner are of high importance. He’ll speak more than 24 hours before the markets open, so there will be enough time to digest his words. Let’s review the week’s events:

1. Swiss Retail Sales: Published on Monday at 8:15 GMT. Switzerland enjoys good fundamentals but the central bank doesn’t like it at all. The SNB intervenes in the markets, but usually this doesn’t have a long lasting effect. This important figure is expected to rise by an annual rate of 1.6%, double of last month’s number. There will action in USD/CHF around this release.
   

2. British Inflation Report: Published on Wednesday at 10:30 GMT. This important quarterly event will address the rising inflation in Britain and the central bank’s measures against it. This report, accompanied by a press conference by Mervyn King goes beyond inflation and will deal with the whole economy, which is shaky.
3. US and Canadian Trade Balance: Published together on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT. This double-feature event always shakes USD/CAD. The American deficit is predicted to squeeze from 36.4 billion to 35.5 billion, while the Canadian trade balance is almost balanced. It’s predicted to stand at 0.1 billion, and could also turn into a surplus.
   
4. British NIESR GDP Estimate: Published on Wednesday at 15:00 GMT. After the disappointing official Q4 GDP, we’ll get an initial unofficial glimpse at the British economy in 2010. Last month’s release related to the whole of Q4, and showed a higher number than the official release, but lower than economists’ estimates. The Pound will need a more serious growth to rise.
   
5. Ben Bernanke testifies: On Wednesday. Exact time currently unknown. The head of the Federal Reserve will lay out the plans for exiting the crisis, and the emergency measures. During this testimony, he’ll probably provide an updated overview of the American economy.
   
6. Australian employment figures: Published on Thursday at 00:30 GMT. Australia enjoys a healthy job market, and it’s predicted to remain rather steady. Australian unemployment rate is predicted to edge up to 5.6% from 5.5% but the employment change is expected o be positive again, showing a rise of 15,000 jobs. This is less than last month’s nice 35,000 job gain.
   
7. American Retail Sales: Published on Thursday at 13:30 GMT. Both retail sales and core retails sales disappointed last month with drop of 0.3% and 0.2%. These important consumer-related figures are expected to rise this time by 0.3% each. This release, together with jobless claims, will shake the markets.
   
8. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 13:30 GMT. This important weekly figure disappoints every week with a number that is higher than expectations. After reaching 480K, economists expect a drop to 455K. This will be the first job figure after the Non-Farm Payrolls.
   
9. New Zealand Retail Sales: Published on Thursday at 21:45 GMT. Although more people are unemployed in New Zealand, the consumers continue buying. Both retail and core retail sales have risen by 0.8% last month, and this trend is expected to continue, helping the beaten kiwi dollar.
10. German GDP: Published on Friday at 7:00 GMT. Europe’s largest economy is the first to release GDP data for Q4. This initial release is expected to show a modest growth rate of 0.3%, much less than 0.7% that was reported in Q3. Germany led the continent with nice growth already in Q2. Now it might lag behind.
    
11. European Flash GDP: Published on Friday at 10:00 GMT. 3 hours after the German release, the figure for the whole continent is due. This is expected to be better than the German one, and show a growth rate of 0.4%. This European morning will be very volatile for EUR/USD. Note that French and Italian numbers are also released during this time, something that might add confusion.
12. American Consumer Sentiment: Published on Friday at 14:55 GMT. The week ends with a strong note – the University of Michigan provides its preliminary consumer sentiment figure, which is doing quite well. After reaching 74.4, it’s predicted to edge up to 75.2 points. This will shake the markets before the weekly close.

This Market Weekly Outlook was brought to you by our partner ForexCrunch.com.

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Best Regards,
TradeSmarter.com

Disclaimer: Binary options trading might carry potential rewards, but also potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and willing to accept them in order to trade in the financial markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

TradeSmarter.com Market Weekly Outlook – January 25-29

A busy week is ahead of us: rate decision in the US, Japan and New Zealand and GDP releases from the US, UK and Canada are part of an eventful week. Will we see more dollar strength? Here’s an outlook for the last week of January.

Beginning on Wednesday, the World Economic Forum meets in Davos, Switzerland. In their 4-day annual meetings, many central bankers, senior politicians and business leaders from all over the world chit-chat with reporters and also make official and moving statements. Their sporadic comments can shake the markets during most of the week.

Monday, January 25th: Australian PPI provides a strong start to the week, as this is a quarterly figure that has a strong impact on the Aussie.

American Existing Home Sales are expected to post a big drop after two strong months, and fall to 6.04 million.

Tuesday, January 26th: The Bank of Japan makes a rate decision. While the Overnight Call Rate isn’t expected to move from 0.1%, but the Monetary Policy Statement could sure shake the Yen, especially if economic forecasts are changed.

German Ifo Business Climate is an important survey for the Euro. It’s expected to continue the steady rising trend and edge up to 95.3 points. Last week’s survey, from ZEW, was bad and sent the Euro down.

Britain probably finished the recession. Prelim GDP for Q1 is expected to show growth of 0.4%. The unofficial number from NIESR talked about 0.3% growth, and they are usually correct, so there’s a good reason to be optimistic. Right after the release, Mervyn King will be speaking.

Last week King weighed on the Pound. A volatile time for the Pound.

In the US, the year-over-year S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI is expected to show a smaller drop in the prices of homes, 4.9%. The more important figure is the CB Consumer Confidence, that recovered from a big fall, and is now expected to climb to 53.7 points.

Wednesday, January 27th: Australian CPI is a quarterly release and has a strong impact on policymakers. After a modest rise of 0.1%, Q4 is expected to show a rise of 0.4%. A stronger rise is necessary to push the Aussie higher.

American New Home Sales are expected to recover from last month’s big fall, and rise to 372K. This will be a warmup for the big event.

Bern Bernanke is expected to leave the interest rate unchanged. The Federal Funds Rate will probably stay at a maximum level of 0.25%, and traders will focus on the usually confusing FOMC Statement. Last month, it took the market 6 hours to digest the statement, which seemed balanced at first. As they focused on the upside of the statement, cautious signs of recovery, the dollar rose. But the message sure was confusing.

Also in New Zealand we have a rate decision. The hot air came out of the balloon with low CPI in New Zealand and China’s tightening measures. So, the Official Cash Rate will probably remain unchanged at 2.5%. Hints for future policy will be provided in the RBNZ Rate Statement.

Thursday, January 28th: American Durable Goods Orders are expected to jump by 2.1% after remaining almost unchanged last month. Core Durable Goods Orders, no less important, are expected to do the opposite and rise by 0.4% after a leap last month.

Unemployment Claims that disappointed last week, are predicted to go back down to 452K.

In New Zealand, both Building Consents and Trade Balance will impact the kiwi, with the latter expected to show a smaller deficit this time.

Near the end of the day, Japan will be releasing Household Spending which is expected to rise and Tokyo Core CPI which is still expected to show an annual drop in prices – 1.8%.

Friday, January 29th: European Unemployment Rate is expected to be bad once again. After reaching 10% last month, it’s predicted to rise to 10.1%.

In Switzerland, the KOF Economic Barometer will move the Swissy.

Canada releases its monthly GDP, which is expected to show a 0.3% growth, better than the previous month. Last week’s rate decision hurt the loonie. USD/CAD will shake during this time, especially with the next release.

American Advance GDP for Q4 holds high expectations: an annual growth rate of 4.6%. After exiting recession in Q3 with a 2.2% growth rate, things are expected to get better in Q4. This release will shake the markets.

Chicago PMI is predicted to post a small drop, and the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment is expected to be revised to the upside. Both events will be overshadowed by the Advance GDP release.

Market Weekly Outlook was brought to you by our partner ForexCrunch.com

Disclaimer: Binary Options Trading might carry potential rewards, but also potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and willing to accept them in order to trade in the financial markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

Leading Binary Options Affiliate Program Launched

We are pleased to announced that our partner site, StartOptions.com has launched its Binary Options Affiliates Program along with a very attractive revenue share program.  This is an ideal fit for marketers who are looking to build long-term, strategic income following the immense growth of binary options trading.

Check what other people do in real time- binary options trading on twitter

Great news for all members of  TradeSmarter!  from now on you can follow all user activities on twitter- it’s as simple as following us (click here). We always do our best to ensure your binary options trading experience is fun and intuitive.  Whether you are a short term trader, swing trader or investor, whether you prefer stocks, Forex, options or futures, it always help to check what people do.

**TradeSmarter site is not a financial advisor, and does not recommend the purchase of any stock or advise on the suitability of any trade or investment.

TradeSmarter welcomes a new partner with a special Thanksgiving promotion

We hope you have enjoyed trading your demo account on TradeSmarter. If you’re interested in opening a real money account, register on StartOptions.com and you will receive a free $100 bonus on your first deposit.

StartOptions is a new binary options trading website that uses TradeSmarter’s platform that is open to everyone.

20 sentences of advice about online trading and binary options trading in particular

1. Have trust in yourself – Do not rely one on brokers for trading advices. Same goes for analysts recommendations and tips from friends, gurus, newsletters etc.

2. Patience – Successful trading is a skill which being acquired over time. Surveys among profitable traders reveal that patience is a common role.

3. Have the right tools for the job- Decent internet connection, comfortable chair, sharp screen etc. This may sound obvious but feeling comfortable while trading is a must.

4. Set goals and find motives for trading – First question any trader should ask himself is “What do I want from the market?” The obvious answer may be “Money”. However, from my own trading experience I can assure you that a more appropriate answer would be “I want to figure out how the game works” / “I want to retire with more money” and so on.
Note: subconsciously, many people trade solely to lose money as a form of punishing themselves for things greater than they understand.

5. Focus on the ‘Now’ – Focus your effort in understanding market conditions as they are now rather than understanding the past or predicting the future.

6. Avoid hunches – The successful trader is in the market solely during market conditions he understands, rather than trading on theories and wishful thinking.

7. Record, Analyze, Improve – Keeping constant records of your trading activity in order to analyze what works and what doesn’t. By keeping a track record, you will optimize your trading strategies, and eventually your results.

8. Give trading the time it deserves – The game of trading is not suitable for the ‘get rich quick’ or lazy sort of mentality. It takes devotion and time to become a successful trader.

9. Scan the market for opportunities- Analyze as many charts as possible and filter them amongst those who interest you the most. Sometimes you’ll need to watch as many as few hundred charts before finding a suitable trade which may answer your criteria for order entry.

10. Manage expectations – Trading is a game, not war or love affair. Learn how to play rather than how to fight. Do not fall in love with the markets; develop an objective view towards it instead; e.g. – one that will increase your overall income. As a game, trading is the most rewarding game on the planet, but in order to master this game, a trader needs to stay realistic and know what to expect.

11. Have the right trading strategy – the ‘right strategy’ may vary from one trader to another based on personality and characteristics. The ‘right strategy’ is one that can be tailored based on one’s strengths while avoiding his weaknesses. The ‘right strategy’ is an individual thing.

12. Work on your mental abilities- While trading you must be in your Zen mode. If a trader is tired, unhappy or simply bored, he will be led towards irrational trading behavior. Unbalanced people rarely ever make money in the market; therefore self improvement should go hand-in-hand with strategy improvement.

13. Better short-term than long-term(?) – Based on my own experience and view of the markets, I understand that no individual can ever speculate on the long term direction of the markets. Speculating on large timeframes is a privilege given to large-pocket players such as banks and big funds. As for us, the individual traders, we receive the privilege of momentarily timeframes and quicker gains.

14. Once you have a trading technique, stick to it – Many traders fail over and over as they constantly create new trading rules along their way. This is not likely to work for simple a reason; you won’t be able to follow which trading strategy to good and which isn’t.

15. Start with a virtual account – It’s better to start trading with binary options practice account to test drive your binary options trading strategies. TradeSmarter platform offers virtual money trading for free:
Open a virtual account now

16. Start your trading journey with enough initial capital- Small portfolios don’t give you the leverage to learn, lose some and improve. If you’ll open a binary options trading account with small amounts, a small losing streak will have a substantial impact on your account and your trading psychology. Ideally, you should start will at least $5000, and then trade for $100-$300 per trade.

17. Identify in what you are good at- If you’ll find that you are good in trading the US market, then stay with the US market, until you’ll have enough capital to try new things. Trading multiple markets will get you out of focus, stick to the market that works for you best.
18. Master technical analysis- Understanding the graph behavior will expose you to many investments patterns that you will learn to recognize and base your trades on.

19. The trend is NOT your friend; perhaps only your ‘fair weather’ friend – Regardless of what they all tell you (analysts, books, gurus etc.) As you can clearly see for yourself, markets move sideways for approximately 70-80% of any given time-period. Once you accept this as a fact, you may actually have an edge in the market. Learn to apply sideway techniques (which are far easier and more profitable) and utilize them in your favor. Read the graph as it is and do not project your theories on him. Listen to his story instead of telling him yours.

20. Don’t be loyal to a specific underlying asset- Save it to your football team.

I hope that sharing my thoughts will help you avoid some of the common failures and evolve as a successful trader. The reasons I advocate for binary options are

• Having control of your position (due to shorter timeframes)
• Efficiency in terms of risk/reward
• Certainty of win/loss ratio
• Advantages during sideway markets
• Transparency of the trade
• Most importantly, the fault tolerance for bad human and trading behavior (eliminating greed, fear, inability to act etc.).

Binary trading, for unknown reasons, is currently the markets best kept secret and I encourage you to take a look.

Start trading Forex ( FX) binary digital options

When an investor would like to place a forex binary option trading he would take under consideration the following factors:

• Trade time
• Spot price
• Strike price
• Forex (FX) binary option price valuation time
• Expiration time

Comparison of binary options premium pricing among binary options firms

It’s highly recommendable that the binary options trader will choose the firm he’s working with according to several parameters, one of them is the option premium collected by the binary options brokerage. Usually there are great variation in the premiums paid as this investment product is relatively new and not liquid as more mature investment products such as CFD’s and Spread Betting.

The difference between: In the Money, At the Money, and Out of the Money

While placing an option trading, the main focus of the forex trader is on the current price of the underlying asset, in our case the real-time spot price.
The spot price that also can be referred as the currency price is called at the money strike price.
The forex trader can purchase a binary option; the strike price will be one of the following:

• In the money (ITM)
• At the money (ATM)
• Out the money (OTM)

In The Money (ITM)

As you already know, anything in the online trading reward is based on a gauge of risk and reward.

The trader has to choice a variety of strategies and risk and reward factors in order to match the best options strategy that will match his investment style and the risk level he’s willing to take.
Risk haters usually stick to in-the-money option positions while risk lovers are more attracted to out-of-the-money option positions. In case the trader purchased in-the-money option, the option will move in correlation with the underlying asset price (in our example the forex spot price). The main advantage of trading forex options in contrast to taking a fx spot position is that investor will pay only the premimum without any other risk, on the other hand the premium of in-the-money option is much higher

At The Money (ATM)

Describe when the options strike price is equal to the spot price, This will allow the investor to take a position which is really close to the market real price without paying the high premiums of In the money position.

Out the Money (OTM)

Trading out of the money options is extremely popular, the forex investor speculates on a scenario which is far from the real market price. The investor wishes for a sharp move that will cause his position will advance according to his prediction, to his strike price or hopefully will exceed his strike price and will become an in the money position.

Option Value vs. Time factor

By taking a forex option trade, the investor always see in his mind several dimensions that related to his predicted profitability and risk. The most important factors are:
1)The time factor-how much time is lest the option to expire
2)Volatility-which implicate the risk within the option position

The option is prices according to many factors which are reflected in the premium price.
The idea behind pricing options is so find cases in which an underlying asset is underpriced or overpriced because of factors that aren’t related to the market and can be used by the investor to take advantage to use this price arbitrage to make money as the market correlation is not systematic.

TradeSmarter.com Launches a Binary Options Wiki

TradeSmarter.com launches today a comperhansive knowledge base that covers the binary options trading market.
Tradesmarter’s binary options wiki includes all the relveant information a trader should know in order to trade binary options sucessfully.

TradeSmarter.com is a technology and services provider of binary options trading solutions. TradeSmarter Binary Options Platform enables online traders to speculate easily on a wide range of instruments within the financial markets such as binary stock options, binary commodities options, binary forex options and binary indices options . TradeSmarter Solutions allow Partners to deploy sophisticated financial components within any new or existing online environment, customized with the look and feel of their own brand. Now platform is live at
TradeSmarter.com – click here to trade options

Binary Options Trading Strategies

Binary options empower the investor with a flexible trading tool that can help him react to any change happening in the market. There are five type of binaries which fall under the following categories:

Binary No Touch (also called “Lock Out”)

a binary option that gives an investor a payout at expiry only if the spot rate has NOT traded at or beyond the touch-barrier before expiry. Only two outcomes are possible with this type of option:

1.    the barrier is breached and the investor collects the full payout agreed upon at theoutset of the contract
2.    the barrier is not breached and the investor losses most of his initial investment
If a trader predicts that an underlying asset is about to bump into a strong resistance or support level,
than the one touch option let speculate that the price won’t fall below a certain support level or alternatively, manage to break out a certain resistance level.
This options trading strategy is usually deployed according to technical analysis assumption such as: Support and Resistance level, Fibonacci analysis etc.

Binary Double No Touch (also called “Range Binary” or “Double Lock Out”)

Is a binary option that pays the investor the predetermined payout at expiry if the price of

the underlying asset does not reach or surpass one of the two predetermined barrier levels.

Only two outcomes are possible with this type of binary option:
1.    The barrier is breached and the investor collects the full payout agreed upon at the outset of the contract.
2.    The barrier is not breached and the trader losing most of his initial investment.

This strategy is aimed to speculate whether an underlying asset predicted to move within a predetermined price range.
In comparison to Strangle options strategy, double no touch don’t exposed to theoretical, unlimited risk of a strong price action in the money.

The risk is limited and predetermined.

Example:
Let’s say the EUR/USD is traded now at the 1.4253 price level,

If you buy a daily ‘Double no touch’ option with 1.43 as the upside barrier level and 1.4205 as the downside barrier level and by the end of the day the EUR/USD moved in a narrow range of 1.4206-1.4252 then this ‘Double

no touch’ binary option will be ‘in-the-money’ paying the full predetermined payout to the trader.

Double One Touch

If a specific underlying asset is predicted to break out a specific price level, with no certainty of which di

rection it will be that the Double one touch strategy is used.

The double one touch binary option will provide the predetermined payout if an underlying asset broke out either one of the directions.
The double one touch often used to speculate a price breakout after a price consolidation or upon economic data release such as earnings reports or macro economic data.

Example:
Let’s say the EUR/USD is traded now at the 1.4253 price level, If you buy a daily ‘Double one touch’ binary option with 1.43 as the upside barrier level and 1.4205 as the downside barrier leveland by the end of the day the EUR/USD surpassed the 1.43 level, or alternatively breached the 1.4205 level than this binary option will be ‘in-the-money’ paying the full predetermined payout to the trader.The following illustration shows a double one touch binary that surpassed the high barrier with an uptrend breakout.

One-Touch Options (also called “Lock In” or “Touch Digital”)

The one-touch binary option gives an investor a predetermined payout once the price of the underlying as

set reaches or surpasses a predetermined price level.
There are two possible outcomes for the ‘one-touch’ binary option:

1) The predetermined price level is breached, the investor receive the payout agreed.
2) The price level is not breached and the investor losses some of his investment

When an underlying asset is expected to move sharply to a specific direction based on solid assumption than the ‘one touch’ binary option shall be used. When buying a one touch binary option, the trader anticipates either a breakout with taking under consideration the breakout strength,as the one touch options trading strategy will be in the money only if it ‘touched’ the predetermined price level.

Binary options (also called “Digital Options’)

Binary options are one of the simplest and inexpensive investment products out there.
If you believe that the EUR/USD will climb above the current price (1.4253 for example), at the end of the selected duration (within 1 day for example) that a binary option is a great choice for you, offering a predetermined reward and risk.

Tradesmarter’s Platform-New Bottom Bar Is Up!

As you might noticed, new improvements are being added to TS financial gaming platform on a weekly basis. We are really excited about the new deployment that just went live!, some performance issues were resolved-improving your trading experience by reducing the response time by 25%.

As we are fellow traders like you, we felt something lacking in terms of feeling the pulse of the market.. So we deployed a very cool bottom bar that show a world clock, presenting you the important data your need in a more reachable manner:

• Clock – Your local time and date

• Market Quotes-The quotes are refreshed dynamically, showing you stock quotes while your are trading forex, and forex quotes while you trade binary options.. If something is happening, you can response in a quicker manner as a click on a specific quote will take you directly to the trading area
• Financial News-All the news about the instruments traded in Tradesmarter.com are aggregated into the bottom bar and shown live, saving you the hassle of opening another browser and searching for news.

We are getting great feedback’s  from you guys, we got very positive comments regarding binary options trading, we promise to pursue of creating a great platform for you, new killer features are going to be deployed very soon and many great surprises are on the way…

Stay tuned !  Goto Trade options

Tradesmarter Team

Hedging a Forex News Risk Event Using Binary Options

In the past few days I have been writing all about how excited I am about my Forex hedging strategies using Forex binary options. If you have read my previous posts on this blog, then by now you are familiar with how to hedge a breakout of a Forex instrument using binary options. But just to recap, binary options hedging offers a better alternative to traditional stop-losses. The reason they protect you better than stop-losses is that stop-losses lose money when they are hit and a binary option hedge does not.

Its that simple, The principal behind this is that binary option hedges shift the risk from below the breakout point to above it. The most attractive feature of this risk-shift is that trader momentum works in your favor above the breakout point. Have a look at my previous posts if this is not clear.
Today I will talk about another binary option hedging strategy. This strategy is similar to the strategy we have been discussing. The only difference is that the timing of both your Forex trade and your binary option hedge will be based on a a rally following a Forex news risk event, rather than a breakout of a resistance point.
In this example, today Great Britain released an important news data, the CPI y/y. Immediately after the news release, which attested to a better than expected rise in Great Britain’s CPI, the GBPUSD rallied as expected. Just after buying a long position on the GBPUSD, I placed a binary option hedge on www.Tradesmarter.com ’s binary option trading site. As in my previous posts about hedging, this hedge was a position opposite to the Forex position that I was holding, in other words a $100 PUT GBPUSD binary option trade. What this effectively achieved was to provide me with a $70 buffer zone below the breakout point. Anywhere within that buffer zone, within a $70 loss on my long Forex position, I would have been protected against a breakout failure without losing any money. A stop-loss, on the other hand, would have resulted in losses in case it was hit after a breakout failure or a shake-out (a minor test of the breakout point).
We have been talking about trader momentum as an important element in making this strategy successful. As you can see in the image and in examples in my previous posts, as long as the breakout failure is minor, selling momentum will be minor in my hedged buffer zone, just below the breakout point. As soon as the breakout re-occurs after testing the breakout point, trader buying momentum will work in our favor by quickly providing us the gains we need to cover the cost of the binary option hedge, $85.
In short, trader momentum works in a highly correlated nature with binary option hedging. This makes binary option hedging a more successful strategy for protecting against minor breakout failures than a traditional stop-loss.

Go to trade options

Hedging a Breakout of the GBP/USD Using Binary Options Trading

Today as expected, the GBPUSD ended its fantastic five day up swing (see image below, left side). The end of the swing was marked by a reversal during European market hours, shortly after 8AM GMT. The reversal was marked by a breakout at the 1.65150 resistance line. As usual the breakout was tested less than an hour later. At that point, the GBPUSD rose just above the breakout point, reaching 1.65185. This slight failure of the breakout point was enough to shake out those of us Forex traders that place a tight stop-loss just below (above in this case of a short) the breakout point.

We all know how much it stings when a very minor breakout failure denies us a huge payday. Indeed, those of you who placed a wider stop-loss raked in huge profits all the way down to 1.63555. So the question that always returns to our mind is, ‘What to do- set tight stops and get shaken out or set wide stops with greater risks?’

In my last article I explained how to resolve this risk conflict using binary options hedging (the link is provided below). Today would have been a great opportunity to use this strategy. At the same time that I shorted the GBPUSD at 1.65150, I placed a CALL binary option trade on the GBPUSD. Since the payout model at tradesmarter’s binary option trading website returns a 70% payout, this meant that my $100 CALL binary option effectively hedged my GBPUSD short trade and kept me profitable even when the breakout failed. In fact, I was hedged all the way up to 1.65250 without placing any stop-losses. As expected, the breakout failed only slightly and then brokeout again with much more momentum. My hedge cost me $85 because the success of the breakout caused my CALL binary option to fail. However it did its job since the profit on the GBPUSD was much greater, as you can see in the chart attached.

The conclusion, as you can see, is that binary option hedging can usually offer us a more successful alternative than placing traditional stop-losses. Thanks to moderate breakout tests, followed by trader momentum, we can shift our risk from below (in this case above, because its a short) the breakout point to above it (in this case below it). For a quick explanation of how this works see see http://tradesmarter.com/2009/06/trading-binary-options-as-a-hedging-strategy-for-forex-trading/ .

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