Binary Options Market Outlook: July 19 – 23
SPOTLIGHT:
Apple will report results for its fiscal third quarter on Tuesday.
Apple will report results for its fiscal third quarter on Tuesday. The period closed June 27, three days after the iPhone 4 went on sale. It will also be the first reporting period to include sales of the iPad tablet device that was launched in early April. Apple shares have lost more than 4% so far this week, as negative press around the iPhone 4 has built up. On Monday, Consumer Reports said it could not recommend buying the device until Apple addressed the antenna problem.
U.S. stocks to begin volatile week on Monday
Friday’s sharp slide followed a late-session bounce back the day before as investors cheered the government settling its fraud suit against Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The U.S. stock market is likely to begin the new week with some volatility, with investors eying disappointing economic reports and a mixed burst of quarterly earnings reports.
Euro may test $1.30 and higher next week
The Euro and other USD currency pairs will be affected by economic data next week. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This release checks the pulse of the US economy every week and serves as an indicator for the Non-Farm Payrolls and American housing figures: Published on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT. The housing sector is critical for the US economy.
Gold may test $1185 and lower next week
Gold hasn’t been able to gather much strength from safe-haven buying Friday, as the downward pressure from other markets was just too great. The settlement below $1,190 brought gold to the bottom of its recent trading range. Gold has traded sideways for the past two weeks.
World Stocks Up After Greece Asks For Bailout
World stock markets rose Monday as fears of a Greek debt default eased following last week’s request by the country to tap a rescue package from its 15 partners in the eurozone and the International Monetary Fund.
Rate decisions in the US, Japan and New Zealand, and the first GDP release from the US for 2010 are the highlights of this week, which begins slowly and then explodes. Will the dollar index break to a one year high?
Greek hopes turned into worries once again, as more credit downgrades for Greece were released and the talks of a possible default became louder. This story continues to accompany us, as well as the indicators.
This market review was brought to your by our partner: ForexCrunch.com
1. American CB Consumer Confidence: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. This broad survey of 5,000 households had a big dip in February but recovered quickly in March and reached 52.5 points. It’s now expected to take one step higher and rise to 54.2 points. EUR/USD is quite sensitive to this release.
2. Ben Bernanke talks: Starts speaking before the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. In this official public appearance, Bernanke will definitely move the markets. He will testify on the challenge of achieving fiscal sustainability and will comment about the economy.
3. Australian CPI: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. Australia published its consumer prices only once every quarter, making this event an important release – an important indicator towards the next rate decision. After rising by 0.5% in Q4 of 2009, an acceleration is expected this time – 0.9%. A rise above 1% might push the Stevens to another rate hike. He seems reluctant to make another move soon.
4. American rate decision: Published on Wednesday at 18:15 GMT. Ben Bernanke isn’t expected to make any surprises with the Federal Funds Rate – it’s expected to remain unchanged at a maximum level of 0.25%. Maybe the discount rate will be mentioned. As usual, the FOMC Statement will be closely watched – every change in the wording might have hints, especially the clause about holding interest rates at a low level for an extended period of time.
5. New Zealand rate decision: Published on Wednesday at 21:00 GMT. New Zealand didn’t follow Australia with a move on the rates, and isn’t expected to move them now as well. The Official Cash Rate is expected to stay at 2.5%. Given the unconvincing rise in prices and weak retail sales, this won’t happen soon. The RBNZ Rate Statement that accompanies the rate decision will have a strong impact on the currency, especially if the economic forecast is updated.
6. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. After rising to alarming levels, last week’s numbers were back to normal, at 456K. This time, a drop down to 440K is predicted. A break under 430K is necessary for seeing serious growth in the job market. Note that this is the best indicator for the Non-Farm Payrolls. Up to now, jobless claims indicate that no fireworks will be seen at the next NFP.
7. Japanese rate decision: Published on Friday morning. Japan’s Overnight Call Rate won’t move from 0.1%, not in the near future. The focus will be on the easing steps that the BOJ will make, and on the updated economic forecasts. Japan declared a war on deflation and could take more steps to stimulate the economy and move prices. Note that the Tokyo Core CPI, the best inflation indicator, is published just before the rate decision and will probably show an annual drop of 2% in prices, worse than previous months.
8. Swiss KOF Economic Barometer: Published on Friday at 9:30 GMT. This important Swiss indicator, based on 12 basic ones, is a good reflection of the Swiss economy, and its moves go hand in hand with the Swissy’s strength. After rising to 1.93 points, a rise to 1.99 is predicted this time, the highest since December 2007.
9. European Unemployment Rate: Published on Friday at 9:00 GMT. The European unemployment rate and flash CPI are published together. Unemployment is flirting around 10% for a few months. This is a big burden on Europe, and prevents Trichet from moving the rates, despite improvements various surveys.
10. European Flash CPI: On the other hand, inflation is slowly picking up. The CPI Flash Estimate is expected to show an annual rise of 1.4% in prices, exactly like last month and the highest level since the end of 2008. German PPI unexpectedly leaped last week. A rise above 1.5% will be problematic for Trichet – fighting inflation with higher rates will endanger the fragile recovery.
11. Canadian GDP: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Canada’s monthly GDP is expected to rise by 0.5% in February, slightly lower than the 0.6% in January, but still in the same good rate as in Q4. Another nice month of growth will support the Canadian dollar in its battle on parity, which is still going on. GDP helped the loonie last month, and after the weak CPI and retail sales, it’ll sure need another boost.
12. American Advance GDP: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. After a very strong fourth quarter, that wasn’t accompanied with the same recovery in jobs, economists expect Q1 to show slower growth – an annual rate of 3.4%. Note that these expectations aren’t low, and that exceeding them will be a big boost for the dollar.
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20 sentences of advice about online trading and binary options trading in particular
1. Have trust in yourself – Do not rely one on brokers for trading advices. Same goes for analysts recommendations and tips from friends, gurus, newsletters etc.
2. Patience – Successful trading is a skill which being acquired over time. Surveys among profitable traders reveal that patience is a common role.
3. Have the right tools for the job- Decent internet connection, comfortable chair, sharp screen etc. This may sound obvious but feeling comfortable while trading is a must.
4. Set goals and find motives for trading – First question any trader should ask himself is “What do I want from the market?” The obvious answer may be “Money”. However, from my own trading experience I can assure you that a more appropriate answer would be “I want to figure out how the game works” / “I want to retire with more money” and so on.
Note: subconsciously, many people trade solely to lose money as a form of punishing themselves for things greater than they understand.
5. Focus on the ‘Now’ – Focus your effort in understanding market conditions as they are now rather than understanding the past or predicting the future.
6. Avoid hunches – The successful trader is in the market solely during market conditions he understands, rather than trading on theories and wishful thinking.
7. Record, Analyze, Improve – Keeping constant records of your trading activity in order to analyze what works and what doesn’t. By keeping a track record, you will optimize your trading strategies, and eventually your results.
8. Give trading the time it deserves – The game of trading is not suitable for the ‘get rich quick’ or lazy sort of mentality. It takes devotion and time to become a successful trader.
9. Scan the market for opportunities- Analyze as many charts as possible and filter them amongst those who interest you the most. Sometimes you’ll need to watch as many as few hundred charts before finding a suitable trade which may answer your criteria for order entry.
10. Manage expectations – Trading is a game, not war or love affair. Learn how to play rather than how to fight. Do not fall in love with the markets; develop an objective view towards it instead; e.g. – one that will increase your overall income. As a game, trading is the most rewarding game on the planet, but in order to master this game, a trader needs to stay realistic and know what to expect.
11. Have the right trading strategy – the ‘right strategy’ may vary from one trader to another based on personality and characteristics. The ‘right strategy’ is one that can be tailored based on one’s strengths while avoiding his weaknesses. The ‘right strategy’ is an individual thing.
12. Work on your mental abilities- While trading you must be in your Zen mode. If a trader is tired, unhappy or simply bored, he will be led towards irrational trading behavior. Unbalanced people rarely ever make money in the market; therefore self improvement should go hand-in-hand with strategy improvement.
13. Better short-term than long-term(?) – Based on my own experience and view of the markets, I understand that no individual can ever speculate on the long term direction of the markets. Speculating on large timeframes is a privilege given to large-pocket players such as banks and big funds. As for us, the individual traders, we receive the privilege of momentarily timeframes and quicker gains.
14. Once you have a trading technique, stick to it – Many traders fail over and over as they constantly create new trading rules along their way. This is not likely to work for simple a reason; you won’t be able to follow which trading strategy to good and which isn’t.
15. Start with a virtual account – It’s better to start trading with binary options practice account to test drive your binary options trading strategies. TradeSmarter platform offers virtual money trading for free:
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16. Start your trading journey with enough initial capital- Small portfolios don’t give you the leverage to learn, lose some and improve. If you’ll open a binary options trading account with small amounts, a small losing streak will have a substantial impact on your account and your trading psychology. Ideally, you should start will at least $5000, and then trade for $100-$300 per trade.
17. Identify in what you are good at- If you’ll find that you are good in trading the US market, then stay with the US market, until you’ll have enough capital to try new things. Trading multiple markets will get you out of focus, stick to the market that works for you best.
18. Master technical analysis- Understanding the graph behavior will expose you to many investments patterns that you will learn to recognize and base your trades on.
19. The trend is NOT your friend; perhaps only your ‘fair weather’ friend – Regardless of what they all tell you (analysts, books, gurus etc.) As you can clearly see for yourself, markets move sideways for approximately 70-80% of any given time-period. Once you accept this as a fact, you may actually have an edge in the market. Learn to apply sideway techniques (which are far easier and more profitable) and utilize them in your favor. Read the graph as it is and do not project your theories on him. Listen to his story instead of telling him yours.
20. Don’t be loyal to a specific underlying asset- Save it to your football team.
I hope that sharing my thoughts will help you avoid some of the common failures and evolve as a successful trader. The reasons I advocate for binary options are
- Having control of your position (due to shorter timeframes)
- Efficiency in terms of risk/reward
- Certainty of win/loss ratio
- Advantages during sideway markets
- Transparency of the trade
- Most importantly, the fault tolerance for bad human and trading behavior (eliminating greed, fear, inability to act etc.).
Binary trading, for unknown reasons, is currently the markets best kept secret and I encourage you to take a look.
Start trading Forex ( FX) binary digital options
When an investor would like to place a forex binary option trading he would take under consideration the following factors:
- Trade time
- Spot price
- Strike price
- Forex (FX) binary option price valuation time
- Expiration time
Comparison of binary options premium pricing among binary options firms
It’s highly recommendable that the binary options trader will choose the firm he’s working with according to several parameters, one of them is the option premium collected by the binary options brokerage. Usually there are great variation in the premiums paid as this investment product is relatively new and not liquid as more mature investment products such as CFD’s and Spread Betting.
The difference between: In the Money, At the Money, and Out of the Money
While placing an option trading, the main focus of the forex trader is on the current price of the underlying asset, in our case the real-time spot price.
The spot price that also can be referred as the currency price is called at the money strike price.
The forex trader can purchase a binary option; the strike price will be one of the following:
In The Money (ITM)
As you already know, anything in the online trading reward is based on a gauge of risk and reward.
The trader has to choice a variety of strategies and risk and reward factors in order to match the best options strategy that will match his investment style and the risk level he’s willing to take.
Risk haters usually stick to in-the-money option positions while risk lovers are more attracted to out-of-the-money option positions. In case the trader purchased in-the-money option, the option will move in correlation with the underlying asset price (in our example the forex spot price). The main advantage of trading forex options in contrast to taking a fx spot position is that investor will pay only the premimum without any other risk, on the other hand the premium of in-the-money option is much higher
At The Money (ATM)
Describe when the options strike price is equal to the spot price, This will allow the investor to take a position which is really close to the market real price without paying the high premiums of In the money position.
Out the Money (OTM)
Trading out of the money options is extremely popular, the forex investor speculates on a scenario which is far from the real market price. The investor wishes for a sharp move that will cause his position will advance according to his prediction, to his strike price or hopefully will exceed his strike price and will become an in the money position.
Option Value vs. Time factor
By taking a forex option trade, the investor always see in his mind several dimensions that related to his predicted profitability and risk. The most important factors are:
1)The time factor-how much time is lest the option to expire
2)Volatility-which implicate the risk within the option position
The option is prices according to many factors which are reflected in the premium price.
The idea behind pricing options is so find cases in which an underlying asset is underpriced or overpriced because of factors that aren’t related to the market and can be used by the investor to take advantage to use this price arbitrage to make money as the market correlation is not systematic.
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